Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland : co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture
Year of publication
2021
Authors
Lehtonen, Heikki S.; Aakkula, Jyrki; Fronzek, Stefan; Helin, Janne; Hildén, Mikael; Huttunen, Suvi; Kaljonen, Minna; Niemi, Jyrki; Palosuo, Taru; Pirttioja, Nina; Rikkonen, Pasi; Varho, Vilja; Carter, Timothy R.
Abstract
Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.
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Publication type
Publication format
Article
Parent publication type
Journal
Article type
Original article
Audience
ScientificPeer-reviewed
Peer-ReviewedMINEDU's publication type classification code
A1 Journal article (refereed), original researchPublication channel information
Journal
Publisher
Volume
21
Issue
1
Article number
7
ISSN
Publication forum
Publication forum level
1
Open access
Open access in the publisher’s service
Yes
Open access of publication channel
Partially open publication channel
Self-archived
Yes
Other information
Fields of science
Ecology, evolutionary biology; Agronomy; Business and management; Social policy; Social and economic geography; Other social sciences
Keywords
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Publication country
Switzerland
Internationality of the publisher
International
Language
English
International co-publication
No
Co-publication with a company
No
DOI
10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2
The publication is included in the Ministry of Education and Culture’s Publication data collection
Yes