The “Seili-index” for the Prediction of Chlorophyll-α Levels in the Archipelago Sea of the northern Baltic Sea, southwest Finland
Year of publication
2022
Authors
Hänninen, Jari; Mäkinen, Katja; Nordhausen, Klaus; Laaksonlaita, Jussi; Loisa, Olli; Virta, Joni
Abstract
To build a forecasting tool for the state of eutrophication in the Archipelago Sea, we fitted a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) to marine environmental monitoring data, which were collected over the years 2011–2019 by an automated profiling buoy at the Seili ODAS-station. The resulting “Seili-index” can be used to predict the chlorophyll-α (chl-a) concentration in the seawater a number of days ahead by using the temperature forecast as a covariate. An array of test predictions with two separate models on the 2019 data set showed that the index is adept at predicting the amount of chl-a especially in the upper water layer. The visualization with 10 days of chl-a level predictions is presented online at https://saaristomeri.utu.fi/seili-index/. We also applied GAMMs to predict abrupt blooms of cyanobacteria on the basis of temperature and wind conditions and found the model to be feasible for short-term predictions. The use of automated monitoring data and the presented GAMM model in assessing the effects of natural resource management and pollution risks is discussed.
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Publication type
Publication format
Article
Parent publication type
Journal
Article type
Original article
Audience
ScientificPeer-reviewed
Peer-ReviewedMINEDU's publication type classification code
A1 Journal article (refereed), original researchPublication channel information
Publisher
Volume
27
Issue
4
Pages
571-584
ISSN
Publication forum
Publication forum level
1
Open access
Open access in the publisher’s service
Yes
Open access of publication channel
Partially open publication channel
Self-archived
Yes
Other information
Fields of science
Mathematics; Statistics and probability; Computer and information sciences; Chemical sciences; Environmental sciences; Ecology, evolutionary biology; Other natural sciences; Other engineering and technologies
Keywords
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Publication country
Netherlands
Internationality of the publisher
International
Language
English
International co-publication
Yes
Co-publication with a company
No
DOI
10.1007/s10666-022-09822-9
The publication is included in the Ministry of Education and Culture’s Publication data collection
Yes