Sub-seasonal forecasts provide information about weekly-mean weather beyond two weeks and up to two months ahead. Such forecasts are needed for better planning by companies and private users. About 20% of such forecasts for Europe may have practical value, but the forecast information is rarely used because forecasters do not know whether individual forecasts can be trusted. The goal of this project is to understand conditions when weather is predictable beyond two weeks and to develop methods to identify cases when sub-seasonal forecasts, for example forecasts of cold spells, heat waves, heavy rains and droughts, can be trusted. We will achieve this goal by combining analysis of huge volumes of observations and forecast data with our originally designed forecast model experiment. Practical application of project results will deliver more information about forecast quality to users and will help them in decision making.

2023

2027