Low pressure weather systems can cause disruptive weather in the mid and high latitudes. Accurate weather forecasts of these weather systems help protect life and are of great value to society. Climate change will have a large impact on these weather systems yet it is unknown how climate change will affect our ability to forecast low pressure systems. In this project at the University of Helsinki we will quantify how the accuracy of weather forecasts of low pressure systems affecting Europe and the Arctic, and their associated hazardous weather, will change in the future and identify why. Using the weather forecast model OpenIFS and the supercomputer LUMI, we will perform thousands of weather forecasts of different low pressure systems sampled from climate model output representative of the current day and a much warmer future climate. The results will benefit users of weather forecasts and will help operational weather prediction centres prepare for the future.

2025

2026