2026

Labarre, Clémence; Shavazipour, Babooshka; Loustau, Denis; Domec, Jean-Christophe

Key message Climate change narrows viable management alternatives in the Landes de Gascogne Forest. By testing a wide range of management regimes under contrasting climate and risk scenarios, we show that the capacity of timber damage varies across the landscape. Identifying where flexible, low-risk regimes can still sustain carbon sequestration helps decision-makers select robust strategies that reconcile local limits with regional planning needs. Context Regional forest management integrates diverse forest types and objectives, yet the impacts of climate change at sub-regional scales and identifying suitable management regimes for mitigation require further investigation. Aims We align regional strategies with site-specific constraints by assessing how maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) management in the Landes de Gascogne Forest can reconcile local climatic limitations with regional production goals. We aim to identify local management flexibility and quantify the resulting trade-offs with regional carbon sequestration and carbon export under contrasted scenarios. Methods Our cross-scale framework integrated 88 km climate projections with process-based forest simulations. Using multi-objective optimization, we explored how the set of feasible management alternatives changes across space under different climate scenarios and disturbance risks. Results Climate change consistently reduced service provision supply across scenarios. Under the most worst-case scenario, regional outcomes depended on the ability of local management regimes to mitigate risk, up to thresholds beyond which no current regimes remained viable. Climate effects amplified spatial disparities, reinforcing productivity in the southwest while increasing water limitations in eastern areas. Sub-regional flexibility emerged as a key lever to buffer losses in carbon-related services. Conclusion This framework links local decision-making capacity with regional constraints, supporting adaptive, climate-informed forest planning.