This study addresses the seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice. As the climate warms, the area and thickness of ??the Arctic sea ice decreases, the ice cover becomes more seasonal. Due to the rapid changes in climate and sea ice conditions, the need for seasonal ice forecasts has become more pressing. Better forecasts would increase the safety of activities in the Arctic Ocean, such as shipping, research expeditions and tourism. Improvements in the forecasts would allow to plan the activities more in advance. This study uses atmospheric and ocean reanalyses, seasonal forecasts, and a sea ice model to improve the reliability of sea ice seasonal forecasts. The study seeks to better understand what characteristics in atmosphere and ocean physics affect the predictability of sea ice. The aim is also to help forecasting centers to target their resources on aspects that can improve the forecasts. This study will be carried out at the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

2021

2025