Long-lasting weather patterns, such as heat waves, frost periods, and rainy periods, have a major impact on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Persistent weather patterns are most often associated with stationary high-pressure centres or storm tracks. The duration of weather types is often not easy to predict. In the proposed project, the factors influencing the emergence, duration and termination of long-lasting weather phenomena are investigated. These factors include, e.g., stratospheric polar vortex (at about 20 km height), tropospheric jet stream (5-10 km height), sea surface temperatures, sea ice and snow coverage, and soil moisture. Historical observations are analyzed from the period 1979-2023 and, based on climate models, possible changes in the occurrence of persistent weather types during this century are investigated. A method based on artificial intelligence will also be developed, to support weather forecasting models.

2024

2028