2025

Gunasekara, Sachini; Saarela, Mirka

Many of the articles on AI in education compare the performance and fairness of different models, but few specifically focus on quantitatively analyzing their explainability. To bridge this gap, we analyzed key evaluation metrics for two machine learning models—ANN and DT—with a focus on their performance and explainability in predicting student outcomes using the OULAD. The methodology involved evaluating the DT, an intrinsically explainable model, against the more complex ANN, which requires post hoc explainability techniques. The results show that, although the feature-based and structured decision-making process of the DT facilitates natural interpretability, it struggles to model complex data relationships, often leading to misclassification. In contrast, the ANN demonstrated higher accuracy and stability but lacked transparency. Crucially, the ANN showed great fidelity in result predictions when it used the LIME and SHAP methods. The results of the experiments verify that the ANN consistently outperformed the DT in prediction accuracy and stability, especially with the LIME method. However, improving the interpretability of ANN models remains a challenge for future research.